Budget 2009-10

Mega numbers, fancy accounting and tall claims — But really, I have personally come to a stage where I no longer take the budget speech very seriously, because if one analyzes the track record of the last six to eight years one realizes that during the course of any given year the actual spreads never even remotely match the laid out proposals! Quite honestly, one cannot entirely blame the government either, as due to mainly three things it is becoming increasingly difficult for any country to forecast figures and policies of one year in advance and then go on to follow them to the hilt.
These three factors are:
(1) Events (political and economic) these days often unfold quicker than any type of planning cum forecasting.
(2) In the supersonic age of globalization where communication and information flow is lightening fast, one year is being perceived as being too long a period in the context of day-to-day decision-making requirements.
(3) In case of economies such as Pakistan, which balance their budgets by way of deficit financing, there is always the risk of donor or institutional promises that either do not mature at all or simply get deferred and delayed.
So how should then one react to the once-a-year pompous budget speeches? Again, in my opinion, the real benefit of such an exercise to the general public lies in exposing the true mindset of the economic managers and that, behind the cobweb of complex figures, in which direction they want to take the nation’s economy. If the overall direction is right and the mindset is healthy (people-friendly) then great, and if otherwise, then the challenge is to somehow convince them to change course in order to avoid further economic suffering.
Presently the Pakistani military is taking on the miscreants directly, but the real reckoning will come when the fight is over, in ensuring that insurgency and terrorism do not spread again. In that, the state of economy will be crucial, because if we are unable to win the hearts and minds of our people by providing them timely jobs and economic relief, the ground gained by the good work of the armed forces will be lost in days. And it is in this light that we should be assessing this recently announced budget. Meaning, does the direction the economic leaders have adopted take us towards creating opportunities, providing jobs, encouraging domestic and foreign investment, and eradicating poverty? Measuring on such a yardstick, regrettably, the announcements fall significantly short of creating any kind of positive feelings or generating a likely stimulus in the economy.